“让我们稍稍放松一下,” CoinShares首席战略官Meltem Demirors说。 “比特币代表三种不同的事物。”

在比特币宏的这一集中,该领域中最多产的声音之一与CoinDesk的战略负责人Nolan Bauerle谈到了将比特币作为软件,“超国家全球通信网络”和资产。

“对于传统投资者而言,将这三样东西放在一起,这是一种具有挑战性的范例,” Demirors解释。

对话是在11月12日星期二在CoinDesk的 Invest:NYC 会议上,在Demirors出现之前进行的。 Bitcoin Macro弹出式播客系列的演讲者和主题来自该活动探讨了比特币在全球金融系统中的当前作用。

在播客中,Demirors与Bauerle谈及:

  • 为什么加密技术在整个领域都广为人知,但却几乎没有为大多数投资者注册。
  • 为什么天秤座在许多方面都是比特币的对立面。
  • 为什么美元仍然是受灾地区最需要的资产,以及为什么教育对于一天扮演这一角色的比特币至关重要。
  • 为什么投机活动是与比特币更深入互动的门户。
  • 全球性的“寻求收益”如何塑造了比特币的叙述。
  • 区块链开发的“未来恋物癖”时代。
  • 为什么将比特币称为“不受管制”的想法不太准确。
  • 围绕央行数字货币的新战役。
  • 为什么在加密空间中最有趣的指标是第三方机构持有的比特币的百分比。

在此处收听播客,或阅读下面的全文。


Nolan Bauerle:( 00:09

欢迎使用11月CoinDesk:投资纽约会议的一部分制作的弹出式播客比特币宏。我是主持人诺兰·鲍尔(Nolan Bauerle)。播客和活动均从金融,加密货币及其他领域的一些领先思想家的角度探讨了比特币与全球宏观经济的交汇点。

Nolan Bauerle:( 00:29

今天很高兴能与加密最著名的人之一Meltem Demirors一起加入。梅尔滕(Meltem)已经存在了很长一段时间,但是在去年夏天她在国会委员会上就整个天秤座产品提供的惊人证词,确实在国际上声名sp起。在加密货币领域工作了很长时间的人们一直意识到梅尔滕(Meltem)的才华,她很友好地加入了我们的今天播客。

Nolan Bauerle:( 01:05

该播客实际上是在试图研究当今比特币在世界上的位置,并品尝我们将在11月12日在纽约市投资推广中心重点关注的内容类型。所以梅尔滕,谢谢您加入我。

Meltem Demirors:( 01:21

非常感谢您拥有我,诺兰。那真是一个美丽的介绍。我觉得我很想一直让你介绍我。

Nolan Bauerle:( 01:32

[inaudible 00:01:32]。我有幸认识你已有一段时间了。

Meltem Demirors:( 01:35

我知道。我们很久以前见过。

Nolan Bauerle:( 01:37

看着您聚集所有这些使您的想法在全球舞台上崭露头角的能力是一种真正的享受,并且我很高兴那天从华盛顿回国的火车上认识您。

Meltem Demirors:( 01:49

是的。我想我正在享受芽光。

Nolan Bauerle:( 01:57

您无疑赢得了它。你绝对赚了。因此,让我们直接进入。我们正在谈论当今世界上的比特币,而我真正要问的第一个问题是,您是否认为比特币是真正的宏观资产?有吗在主要阶段吗?在旁边的舞台上吗?在翅膀上吗?还是今天真的可以将其视为宏?

Meltem Demirors:( 02:19

我认为对于当今世界上大多数人,特别是在投资和金融领域,比特币和加密资产还不是他们所考虑的资产。这是非常小的资产类别。现在大约有200至2500亿。这非常小,因此对于大多数希望将资金转移到代币中的5到1000万美元的投资者而言,这会产生大量的价格波动,而如今却没有真正有效的方法。因此,我当然认为这是一个问题。

Meltem Demirors:( 02:55

我认为,在真正相关的宏观层面上要考虑的另一部分是,宏观投资者在市场上特定资产的背景下定义了世界,因此,我认为作为投资者,您会看待主权国家。债务,您通常将债务作为资产类别来看待,公司债务基金则看待股票,然后很多人喜欢将加密货币归类于替代类别。替代方案在投资领域中的发展势头越来越大,我认为,即使在替代领域中,很多投资者也要真正设法弄清比特币的适用范围对他们构成挑战。

Meltem Demirors:( 03:38

因此,我认为对我们行业的人们来说,最大的挑战是,我们喜欢谈论比特币作为一种资产类别,因为我们每天都在生活,呼吸,饮食,睡眠加密货币,当然我们在世界上的一小部分比特币感觉像是一笔巨大的财富,但我坦率地认为,对大多数投资者而言,比特币并不是真的在他们的意识中,如果还为时过早,并且如果有的话,该地方正在通过他们的PA或个人获得曝光帐户,当然不是通过他们的公司或他们的基金,而且我认为这在不久的将来不会改变,我们也可以谈论更多。

Nolan Bauerle:( 04:20

所以在实践中,您要说的是它还不存在。如果是在这种宏观层面上定义它的功能,在某种程度上可以推动它向前发展,我想我们甚至可以追溯到您7月份在华盛顿的证词。在那次证词中,我认为我们所看到的是您拥有Facebook,该Facebook几乎在威胁美国,而不是一个民族国家,但它拥有某些权力。它承担着我们通常应为一个民族国家规定的某些责任,并且表示我们将要发行这笔私人资金,这当然会得到所有人的支持。

Nolan Bauerle:( 04:58

我认为关于证词的一件值得注意的事情是,您证明比特币并没有提出同样的挑战,但是它正在连贯地创造出相当于数字管辖权的价值,也许是这类宏观资产向前发展的基础,可能构成重要货币供应,硬货币供应的基础。

Meltem Demirors:( 05:25

让我们稍加解开。因此,我认为当我们谈论比特币时所面临的挑战与债务或股票不同,比特币代表了三种不同的事物。比特币是比特币协议上下文中的技术,它是开源代码,并且开源软件已经成为我们世界的一部分,并且我认为开源软件已开始被接受为可投资类别中的一种冒险世界及其他。因此,比特币的核心是比特币协议。

Meltem Demirors:( 05:56

比特币是一个网络,这里有趣的是,比特币是一种超国家的全球通信网络,因此,无论人们是在运行未成年人还是正在满座,世界各地都有成千上万的设备

节点是一个计算设备网络,用于维护比特币分类帐,参与无效交易并维护分类帐的完整性,因此,比特币网络是物理的。

Meltem Demirors:( 06:26

然后,最后,您使用比特币资产了。因此,对于传统投资者来说,我认为这很有趣,当这三样东西结合在一起时,这是一种具有挑战性的范例,因此,当您看到人们看着比特币时,他们会在软件基础架构的背景下谈论比特币。您会听到人们谈论大宗商品中的比特币,因为它是在数字化思维中产生的,就像我们思考生产和开采理论上供应有限的东西一样,例如黄金和石油。

Meltem Demirors:( 06:57

然后,有人在货币和硬货币的背景下谈论它。我认为天秤座有趣的是,天秤座本身就是一种加密货币,但实际上我试图在国会提出的要点是,任何人都可以将任何东西称为加密货币,但事实并非如此。比特币有趣的地方不像商品,不像债券那样,不像股票一样,比特币只不过是需求而已。

Meltem Demirors:( 07:25

因此,在这方面有点独特。它没有物理性,我认为这是有关从高度物理性发展到我们日益以数字方式参与的演变的更大讨论的一部分。因此人们很难掌握。它不一定适合我们在世界上拥有的资产结构,即使是已去实现物质化的资产,例如交易中的股票,您知道,它们仍然具有某种形式的实物股票证书。

Meltem Demirors:( 07:53

然后,我认为另一个有趣的组成部分是,当我们研究天秤座的组成以及它打算做什么时,它实际上只是一个汇集的投资工具,费用中的利息产生于协会。因此,我认为这是Facebook做出的一系列有趣的选择。我不清楚他们为什么认为这是最好的方法,但是我认为,如果您看看天秤座的意图,那将是一大笔资金。您从购买代币的人那里赚钱,将其放入货币和计息工具中,然后我们持有该货币,然后将其加上交易费用分配给参与此私有交易的人名为天秤座协会的封闭团体。

Meltem Demirors:( 08:37

所以,对我来说,这有点像比特币的对立面。因此,我在证词中的唯一真正目的是帮助澄清比特币不是天秤座,比特币与其他所有加密货币都是独立且截然不同的,并且其功能使其具有难以置信的独特性。天秤座以及许多东西实际上不是加密货币。语言上有很多歧义,但无疑我们在使用这些术语的方式上变得越来越重要,特别是对于试图了解正在发生的事情的监管机构,政策制定者而言,但有时他们得到的翻译却是并不是特别有用,实际上可能比没有更令人困惑。

Nolan Bauerle:( 09:19

因此,我想谈谈您所说的两件事,您说天秤座当然是这项共同投资,因此所有这些当事方的动机肯定是为了保护费,但您还提到了因为比特币仅由用户的需求来支持,即比特币确实可以作为不相关的资产存在,所以从理论上讲,天秤座会参与到典型经济的所有起伏中,因为比特币的价值实际上仅基于以下需求:用户和人们都有它。它可以充当避险资产吗?

Meltem Demirors:( 09:59

我认为建立避风港的想法很有趣。我认为人们通常将其构架的方式是这种冒险或冒险的资产。而且我认为避险天堂的挑战仍然是相对的,所以如果我住在美国,有美元,有驾驶执照,有银行帐户,以及借记卡,我可能不会不要将比特币视为避险资产,因为美元对我来说是相当安全的,而且我能够做我想做的一切,而且在危机时期我不一定不一定会认为美元迅速贬值,所以我的购买力模仿,我的PP保持完整。

Meltem Demirors:( 10:42

现在,相反,如果我生活在世界上不稳定和动荡的地区,那么我现在是土耳其人,我就在那里,并向人们谈论比特币,我认为在比特币社区中有这样一种想法,即生活在某些政权或世界各地的人们,由于购买力的波动和当地货币的价值,他们的购买力模仿或购买同一篮子商品的能力波动很大。我认为在我们的社区中,我们希望相信他们只会急于采用比特币,然后出去持有比特币。

Meltem Demirors:( 11:17

真正有趣的是,如果您实际上出门与不愿意持有比特币的人交谈,他们想要美元。因此,这就是我认为在解释新资产类别以及真正理解我们世界正在发生的某些宏观经济转变方面遇到的一些挑战的地方。今天,我们生活在一个以美元计价的世界里,一天结束时,您仍无法支付房租,税金,员工,比特币杂货,我想有一天您将能够当然,我已经投资,合作和支持了许多公司,使人们能够做到这一点,但对于那些生活在世界上没有他们的世界的普通人,我再次想一想我的货币稳定,我认为他们并不一定要考虑将比特币作为解决方案,它可能是解决方案的一部分。

Meltem Demirors:( 12:12

我认为现在他们正在更多地关注美元等事物,但不幸的是,我认为世界需要花费一些时间才能达到比特币在更大程度上实现这一地位的目的。方式。我认为,对于我们在比特币社区中的人,我们当然想对超级比特币化将是什么样,以及如果人们开始将比特币作为避风港资产而拥有一个什么样的世界,那么,我只是不认为这种说法全球规模尚未到位,我再次认为挑战的一部分是如何交流如此新的事物,许多人问谁是比特币的首席执行官,什么阻止了比特币,因此解释这确实是一个基本要素思维模式的转变以及人们的想法。这是信任的转变,而不是信任机构,公司或品牌,而是您信任一个想法和一系列原则。

Meltem Demirors:( 13:11

因此,在我看来,这将需要一些时间,并且将需要开发技术,将正在开发上坡和下坡,这将需要用户体验说起来容易些,但最重要的是,它将需要我们社区进行一些艰苦的工作,以将我们谈论的许多主题转化为人们日常实际思考的事情。

Nolan Bauerle:( 13:36

因此,您最近在土耳其的经验是否使您的想法还不完善,但还是有这项工作要做,或者实际上使您脱离了生存状态断开连接,坐在这些比特币象牙塔之一中,这就是比特币的样子,以及所有这些东西,或者仅仅是您已经受够了时间,您已经在这种情况下看到了,并且知道人们只是还没有准备好,即使我们看到当地比特币从土耳其流出的贸易有所增加,它实际上仍然是孤立的个人,还不足以真正推动动摇吗?

Meltem Demirors:( 14:13

所以我们来谈谈。我认为最重要的是,我觉得自己一直在不断努力让自己走出比特币世界,并与来自完全不同的视角和完全不同的观点的人们进行互动。我认为上下文真的很重要,尤其是当您的一项职能是担任翻译时。有时,我的角色是我是两个截然不同的世界之间的翻译,所以我们这里有这些疯狂的比特币,我当然是该社区的一部分,但与此同时,我也在与之交流一个非常不同的听众,他们有潜力以非常实质性的方式真正塑造和影响比特币作为技术,基础设施和资产的轨迹,因此,我认为了解所有不同的观点和观点才能成为有效的翻译者,但我希望我们能做得更多。

Meltem Demirors:( 15:12

我希望这开始了,但是我们会看到的。说到土耳其,土耳其很有趣,因为ING银行每年都会发布这项研究,这是他们第二年完成这项研究。他们只是在今年10月发布了该软件,他们的研究对象是世界不同地区的数字货币采用率,而土耳其位居第一。因此,很多人都喜欢,哦,是的,因为里拉不稳定,所以土耳其的人想要持有比特币,这是一个很吸引人的叙述,但实际情况是,土耳其已成为人们已经习惯交易外汇的地方。

Meltem Demirors:( 15:50

人们喜欢投机交易。我本人是土耳其人,所以我们有这种文化上的接受度。因此,外汇交易,货币交易是很多人从事的事情。您已经习惯了数字银行业务,因为当银行业务来到土耳其时,他们已经跨越了80年代和90年代,直接数字化。然后,您会有大量对技术真正感兴趣的年轻人,而他们正在做的事情就是猜测比特币。

Meltem Demirors:( 16:26

我认为这当然很令人兴奋,但我认为人们的叙述不是,哦,我想保护自己免受里拉的价格波动影响,当然,如果您回顾一下他们过去的经验,即使里拉大幅贬值一年,如果他们在发生这种情况时或在发生这种情况之前购买了比特币,他们将失去更多的持有比特币。因此,我想再次注意这些叙述很重要,因为过分笼统很容易,而且我认为我们还没有达到这一点。

Nolan Bauerle:( 16:56

因此,您说的是简单的论点成立,他们只是想像其他人一样赚钱。

Meltem Demirors:( 17:01

而且,我认为通过该过程,我实际上认为投机是比特币采用的重要驱动力之一,因为随着人们开始猜测,并且随着人们开始与比特币互动,他们开始欣赏其中的一些。原则和社会价值及其代表的含义,我认为这会导致人们持有比特币的时间更长,并在一种可靠的数字货币形式下越来越多地查看比特币,但我确实认为我们对叙事有点过于兴奋证据还没有完全支持。

Meltem Demirors:( 17:38

现在,好消息是我确实认为比特币社区正在做更加努力的研究。英国剑桥发布了有关比特币和区块链采用的年度研究报告。 ING是一家全球银行,目前正在做报告。覆盖范围和研究方法越来越好。在加密领域内,也有许多新的研究公司开始以不同的方式解析数据,以尝试分析,提供更多的背景信息以及对实际增长指标的看法,但是我认为环游世界并与世界各地的人们互动,这个故事还不存在。

Nolan Bauerle:( 18:16

因此,回到您刚才提到的有关比特币的内容,向人们展示这些机会,让人们学习,并告诉他们世界观,这是我很长时间以来就某人的世界观所做的一种测试它可以多么准确地预测未来。许多比特币人士一直在说,由于主权债务和所有其他因素,我们预计全球将出现衰退。今天,当我们环顾世界时,我们肯定会看到人们一直在使用比特币,只要您自己已经预测了一段时间。例如,我们最近在美国没有看到的不是衰退,但是我们已经看到回购消息使流动性紧缩。

Nolan Bauerle:( 19:00

但是,比特币并没有像大多数人根据这些叙述所预测的那样表现,这些叙述有点说,如果我们在美国采取另一轮量化宽松政策,您将会看到很多美国对比特币的需求。以下是更广泛的问题,在衰退中比特币会发生什么?是您可以用来摆脱许多人多年来预测的世界各地起伏不定的资产,还是会变得越来越相关,需求会下降,仅仅是因为总的来说流动性没有那么多吗?

Meltem Demirors:( 19:35

我认为这个话题很有趣,当然,对于人们来说,这是很诱人的。毕竟,我们处于市场历史上最长的牛市中。我们还没有10年零3个月,而且还在继续。而且,我想这件事的事实是金融体系正在发生变化。对于市场应该如何运作以及投资应该如何运作,人们已经存在了很长一段时间的某些信念,而我们并没有看到很多被证明是错误的信念。

Meltem Demirors:( 20:11

您所看到的只是大量的负收益债务。我的意思是,这有点令人难以置信。数字只是没有意义。您可以看看被动投资领域中正在发生的事情。当您查看许多对冲基金面临的挑战并通过积极的管理产生有意义的alpha值时。它们只是金融市场所面临,投资者所面临的许多挑战,但我认为这自然不意味着我们正处于衰退之中,因为最终,资本继续流动,我们继续看到人们继续走在风险曲线上,投资于高风险的风险投资,越来越多的资本在那里使用。

Meltem Demirors:( 20:57

替代方案继续作为资产类别增长。因此,我认为即将到来的关于经济衰退的叙述很诱人,但我认为这很难预测。如果您愿意的话,我并不是真的在读书蓝绿色的叶子。我认为更有趣的是,关于经济衰退中比特币的表现我们还从未见过一件事,对吗?由于在2008年金融危机之后2009年将比特币引入世界,因此比特币网络启动了,因此我们从未在经济衰退等环境中见过它。

Meltem Demirors:( 21:32

所以,我认为我喜欢将很多未知的未知事物称为当我们进入新的时间时将会发生的事情。我再次认为,塑造我们世界的力量和塑造金融体系的力量存在一些已知的未知数,但随后,我觉得我正在与很多投资者交谈,感觉他们面临着许多未知数,因此关于这个新时代世界的面貌,许多公开的问题。确实感觉我们正处于金融市场的新阶段。有人将此称为晚期资本主义。有些人以日本为例来说明可能发生的情况。

Meltem Demirors:( 22:11

不过,我想我的工作确实是在致力于专注于比特币的含义,并真正地尝试管理比特币和加密资产所发生的起伏,并为投资者提供背景信息他们看着这个世界感到非常困惑,看着比特币说没办法,这太多了,我世界上还有太多其他事情在发生,我不需要增加更多的风险,也不必通过添加更多的不确定性一种波动很大,了解程度不高的资产,我根本上还没有得到。

Nolan Bauerle:( 22:45

是的,所以基本上,也许我们现在正处于一个无限杠杆的时代,这基本上使包括比特币,所有ICO和所有疯狂项目在内的所有资金都得到了资助。如果那笔资金已经不存在了怎么办?比特币是否仍然能够独立存在,还是仅仅是为了寻找风险而在世界各地提供的所有免费货币的产品?正如您所提到的,风险偏好之所以增长,仅仅是因为那里有足够的杠杆作用可供您使用。

Meltem Demirors:( 23:16

寻找产量,对吗?人们一直在寻求收益率,因为最终我们在美国以及许多其他西方发达经济体中所依靠的是,我们的人口正在退休,养老金资金不足。所有这些社会责任都需要得到补偿,而从历史上看,我们的偿付方式是通过复利和收益来解决,而当这种方法停止运转时,唯一的其他选择就是从中提取收益。是通过税收还是通货膨胀从社会中获得的,对吗?

Meltem Demirors: (23:51)

And we're seeing that effect around the world. You look at what's happening in Chile, you look at what's happening in Argentina, you look at what's happening in Hong Kong, you look at what's happening in the UK . There's only so much you can squeeze that out of a system, so I think there're a lot of fundamental existential questions about the relevance of nation-states, the relevance of currencies generally, and what I think is so interesting about bitcoin if we leave aside sort of the price of bitcoin, and these arguments around bitcoin as sound money, and these things that are very exciting, I think what's even more interesting is the questions that bitcoin introduces to the conversation.

Meltem Demirors: (24:33)

So when people first learn about bitcoin I think it opens their mind to the idea that there is a different choice, because we've never really contemplated a world where I could hold something other than government-issued currency, and so that to me is the more interesting, and more profound question, and now of course with China announcing the digital renminbi with a lot of US corporations including Facebook looking at getting involved in the currency game in different ways, or in the cryptocurrency game , or other versions of digitized dollar, or digitized store value, I think it starts to get really interesting.

Nolan Bauerle: (25:12)

Meltem, you've always enjoyed a real tremendous bird's eye view of the industry in your time with DCG and now with CoinShares. You're really someone who's able to not just be in touch with the sort of grassroots of the industry but also the more sophisticated investors, buyers, all of those folks. Have you seen a change from their perspective in the last six months around bitcoin in what they're looking for, the questions they're asking, and what they 're interested in?

Meltem Demirors: (25:43)

Yeah. Absolutely. I think people are certainly getting smarter faster. I think a part of what's so amazing about the bitcoin community is just the extremely high level of quality content that's out there, that's produced by members of the community, for free, is easily available online, on Twitter, on people's websites, on blogs, and podcasts. There's just a real wealth of content information, knowledge being created to share, disseminated, expanded on, which I think is really exciting, and people are responding to that, and people are certainly reading that, and reacting to it.

Meltem Demirors: (26:23)

And so, I think people are starting to gain more of an appreciation for, an understanding, of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, but at the same time I think there's also more confusion than ever, and unfortunately there're a lot of people who look to bitcoin's success and attempt to use it as a way to substantiate whatever their project is, and we saw a lot of this with the ICOs of 2017 and 2018. Everyone wanted to build a better, greener, faster, more scalable bitcoin, name your favorite feature here. I like to call this the era of future fetish in blockchains.

Meltem Demirors: (27:01)

But I think there are so many things about bitcoin that can't be replicated, but what you get is you get a bunch of people in the market who are spreading their own narratives around what bitcoin is and why their asset or their project is different, or better, and I think that market confusion is now being reflected at the government level where we see a lot of conversation around central bank-issued digital currency, a lot of fundamental misunderstandings about how bitcoin works, even in US Congress. I think there was this perception from some of our congressman and congresswoman that bitcoin was unregulated, and I think again the confusion there is yes as a protocol there is no regulation around bitcoin, but if you operate a bitcoin company, and you're domiciled in the US, or you touch a US customers your subject to the rules and regulations of this nation, and there are a lot of rules and regulations from every agency out there going from the CFTC, to the IRS , to FinCEN.

Meltem Demirors: (27:59)

So this sort of notion that bitcoin's unregulated I think is just a misunderstanding, and I think the media's also played a big part in that, in perpetuating some of the sensationalism of what's happening here, and so, unfortunately, there are these series of narratives that have defined bitcoin for the last 10 years of its existence. I think they're starting to die down and fade a bit, but I think that's just a really strong inertia that we as the bitcoin community need to overcome.

Meltem Demirors: (28:32)

And unfortunately, we have not done a very good job with storytelling, and with grasping the why. It still feels like it's stuck in a bit of an echo chamber, and so I'm really hopeful that as more , and more people start to understand bitcoin, start to get interested in bitcoin, and in digital currencies, and they go out there, and they educate themselves whether it's going through events, like Consensus: Invest, or whether it's listening to podcasts, or reading blogs that they'll start to piece together their own view of the world, but I guess that's one of the challenges of having no leader, and essential coordinator, and no marketing body for bitcoin.

Nolan Bauerle: (29:12)

I like the comment you made about that future fetish, because some of it comes up. People will say well what if there's a better bitcoin? Well, this isn't Nintendo. It's not consumer electronics. This is something different. This is cryptography and it develops at a different pace than Nintendo or video games. Just because something is newer doesn't mean it's more useful, and will sell at a fixed sum feature.

Meltem Demirors: (29:34)

Right.

Nolan Bauerle: (29:34)

The very idea that people have accepted demand for this secure network that in many ways is already the most secure network in the world, depending on your basis, or your metrics, you know, here it is. It's about the buy-in, you know? Not the same as consumer technology.

Meltem Demirors: (29:54)

Yeah, and I think when people talk about features a lot of the common complaints you hear about bitcoin are either around technical features, or certain aspects of bitcoin, and I think it sort of misses the point. Yes, bitcoin is technology. Yes, bitcoin is infrastructure, it's communication infrastructure, but we communicate about value, and we can also communicate other types of information. And yes, bitcoin is about money. But at the end of the day I think bitcoin more than anything else represents a social movement and a set of ideas, and I know that sounds very esoteric, and a bit philosophical, but I think what a lot of people are starting to grasp as they go down the proverbial bitcoin rabbit hole, and I love that we call it a rabbit hole, because it's such a strong reference to the movie The Matrix.

Meltem Demirors: (30:47)

I think as people start to learn more and more about bitcoin they understand that it's less and less about technical features, but it's more about some of the unique aspects of bitcoin's design that are impossible to replicate. And at the end of the day, we've seen this time and time again if you have a company that has paid employees, you have a known founder, you have entities that are set up that hold funds that were raised, that creates points of failure that governments can go after.

Meltem Demirors: (31:17)

And bitcoin's sort of birth and creation, and the myth of Satoshi Nakamoto, and how bitcoin was launched and released into the world I think has some of those characteristics of other social movements that sort of emerged that are leaderless that become really powerful. And by the way throughout history, a lot of revolutions have been started by pseudonymous or anonymous creators, writers who have hidden or obfuscated their names. And so, I think there's this interesting sort of tension there where a lot of people try to reduce or simplify bitcoin to just technology, or to just money, or to just one thing.

Meltem Demirors: (31:57)

And it is complex and multidisciplinary and multifaceted, so in order to have that conversation, I think it just takes time for people to understand these multiple components that are working together to imbue bitcoin with some of the really unique characteristics that it has.

Nolan Bauerle: (32:12)

And I did notice your reference to The Matrix on Twitter recently where you did that great Twitter thread sort of linking what it really meant for the pills, and I think that speaks to what you're mentioning right now, this sort of a choice of the foundation that you're going to create some of these super and national institutions out of, or even just ideas that link us together. Maybe they're not institutions at all, or maybe they're just the type of tissue that goes between us all, so that we can transact, and have these types of relationships without the sort of pieces in the wall that were necessary to make it happen before.

Nolan Bauerle: (32:50)

So once again mentioning the reference to your Twitter thread and graph, or chart, or particular visual insight you have to offer the audience that can really sort of capture what you're thinking right now with bitcoin in the world ?

Meltem Demirors: (33:07)

Yeah, absolutely. I think just going back to that thread one of the points I was trying to make was the point around systemic risk, and SIFIs, or systemically important financial institutions, and what that means for systems. So I think one chart that's really important, one graph that's really important, I thought to keep in mind is the percent of the total bitcoin supply that's held in third-party custody, and there is this ongoing sort of meme in the bitcoin community around not your keys, not your coin.

Meltem Demirors: (33:40)

But there is a fundamental question I have that if we institutionalize and financialize bitcoin, and we take 50% of the world's bitcoin supply, lock it up somewhere with the GTCC, and we start trading paper certificates that represent an underlying bitcoin, and sort of dematerialize bitcoin markets, and detach them from the underlying, what does that really do for us other than to create a new tool for speculation? I'm not really sure.

Meltem Demirors: (34:06)

And so, one metric I'm tracking closely is the number of bitcoin in third-party custody according to our latest research, which is linked in the thread, and also on our CoinShares website. It's close to 20 %, and so that's just an interesting thing to keep in mind. And then, the next thing I'm looking at … So that's sort of relates to systemic risk we're creating, and in my view if we're just recreating the same financial system, if we're recreating banks, and institutions, and governments because they're the people who hold the coins ultimately, and control who can access them then that doesn't really accomplish much of the end state of bitcoin, which I think is interesting, and sort of intellectually challenging to think about. It's important to stay intellectually honest as we look at these things.

Meltem Demirors: (34:55)

And then, the second thing I think about that's really more relevant on the macro scale is the balance of accounts and trade flows between countries. I think one of the big questions that's emerging now US economic, political, military hegemony has been a reality for the last 100 years almost, and as we start to see geopolitics shift and get reshaped, and as we start seeing increasing anger, and social frustration in the world about wealth inequality, and income inequality, and the unequal consumption of our planet's resources, and what the implications are I do think we are starting to see nation-states, and people kind of waking up, and saying, well, wait a minute. Why are we living in a dollar-defined world?

Meltem Demirors: (35:49)

And it's interesting to see just over the weekend Rosneft, which is Russia's largest energy exporter, said that they were going to start taking steps to minimize their use of the US dollar with the plan to eliminate it completely. And so, they could use euros, maybe they use digital renminbi, maybe they create their own digital currencies as means for payment and settlement, but that I think is really material because the petro dollar, the dollar defines 90% of the trade flows in the energy industry, and the energy industry's a huge part of the global economy.

Meltem Demirors: (36:24)

And I think the other thing that's really interesting here is the narrative around China's adoption of blockchain technology, and the recent statements made by the government there that they fully intend to create a digitized currency that is going to be used by commercial banks to start, and what do commercial banks do? They finance trade flows.

Meltem Demirors: (36:44)

And so, I do think there's an increasing awareness on the importance of the base currency that's used to sort of shape economic activity around the world, and that's an area I think is really fascinating, because again some of the aspects of bitcoin that make it unique, the fact that it's leaderless, and not controlled by any one entity, and some of these things could potentially also position bitcoin well to be a neutral sort of means of a value transfer.

Meltem Demirors: (37:14)

And so, I think it'll just be very interesting to see how different nation-states attempt to capture that narrative, an attempt to use certain aspects of what we've learned from the growth and rise of bitcoin , and other digital currencies to shape their own place in the world's financial system.

Nolan Bauerle: (37:32)

Fascinating stuff, Meltem. We're coming up at the end of our time here. So you're going to be leading off Consensus: Invest. You're our first keynote speaker out of the block's that morning .

Meltem Demirors: (37:44)

Right.

Nolan Bauerle: (37:44)

So excited to have you there, excited to hear what you have in store, the research that you guys have been working on at CoinShares. I still use your Mining Profitability document that you guys created a year ago to really test, or to quantify mining profitability, through that whole big one, so keep up the good work. CoinShares' research continues to be a reliable resource for myself. Thank you a ton for your time.

Meltem Demirors: (38:08)

Thank you. I’ll see you soon, Nolan.

Nolan Bauerle: (38:16)

Enjoyed this episode? I'd like to personally invite you to come to Invest: New York in November. The event features not only the speaker you just heard but an array of other amazing thinkers. Visit coindesk.com and click events, or simply follow the link in the description. Thanks for listening, and see you in New York City.

Meltem Demirors image via CoinDesk archives

                    

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